"It sucks that someone potentially tricked a temperature sensor with a hairdryer to scam actual gamblers out of potential winnings" really missed a chance to say it blows.
It’s not gambling, these are legitimate financial instruments designed to allow proper risk management through appropriately market-set pricing on the value of that risk mitigation, and it’s doing this in a way that democratizes risk management in a way previously inaccessible to the public.
This instance is what you could call a scam, maybe even fraud. But in the absence of manipulation or insider knowledge predicting the weather is pretty close to gambling. As is "does bitcoin go up or down in the next five minutes" or "how many tweets will Elon Musk post in the next couple days" (all real bets on Polymarket)
It’s a scam when the house takes $1 from that $100 each time. These unlicensed internet gambling halls most certainly take their cut, whatever that amount is.
It's only a scam if they don't disclose that. If the house brought the two people together I'd say it's fair as services rendered. I don't get mad when a bar charges more than the base cost of the alcohol.
"Gaming"[0] companies are audited for the expected value each coin toss/slot machine roll etc. has - typically it's a high and unusually precise percentage, like e.g. 95.1681%.
The scam in is advertising, that emphasizes how much you can potentially win, even though obviously on average the house takes those few percent each time.
[0] A term they like to use to describe themselves.
A lot of gambling is a scam executed form profit. I call it a scam because it's not always fraudulent, it's persuasion and a dash of misleading info. Often one party unduly influences the outcome or has information that the other can't have. Whether it's corruption to predetermine the result of a match, or knowing that the star player will miss it, or a gambling machine that suggests a higher expected payout than the real one, or even a casino's rules that arbitrarily decide whether your win was legitimate or not, in practice the industry is more scam than legitimate business.
I'm a "holy crap how do they keep getting the weather so wrong" addict and it's as irrational as being a gambling addict in that weather forecasts have improved a lot. I've never been tempted to gamble until now, where I realize I can put my money where my (irrational) mouth is.
All that said, gambling addiction is like a disease, same as any other. Holding folks who have it in contempt is about the same as holding alcoholics in contempt. It ignores the fact that it's a real affliction and not a lifestyle choice. Polymarket is taking advantage of that affliction.
You seem to ignore the fact that most people know how bad alcohol, gambling, cigarettes and other addictive things are, yet they still choose them and then suffer consequences.
If you asked someone whether they wanted to get ass cancer and they told you: "yeah, yolo", wouldn't it be a contempt-worthy choice? It would.
Nah I just have compassion for people. For one thing, not everybody knows how bad those things are. If all you see is that "fun uncle" who's always drunk, you learn that drinking isn't so bad. Couple that with being bombarded by positive messages around drinking and the popular belief that anything in moderation is OK, and you end up doing them. The very act of doing them obscures the consequences you are suffering. That's chemical.
The same thing happens with gambling, but it's a dopamine rush instead of an alcohol rush.
I'm not saying people have no agency, I'm just saying there's a lot more going on than just agency.
I think what's also telling is Polymarket's non-reaction to this. If there are obvious concerns that the outcome was manipulated, I'd expect them to invalidate the bet - otherwise they're effectively incentivising manipulation.
Polymarket is simply an exchange for these sorts of “contracts” and the results are verified by a separate entity (it’s a DAO, which of course can be manipulated, and was the subject of controversy due to some Venezuela invasion-related “market” resolutions)
No no no, the outcome revealed new information as the market intends! That info is that people had discounted the rare weather event “a 10% chance of localized hairdryers” on the day in question. The bettor predicted this better than everyone else, making their info public by placing a bet!!! /s
That's effectively what all the 99% or 1% prediction markets are: a bet that an asteroid will destroy the planet or that the Rapture will occur or that we'll all upload our consciousnesses into computronium or whatever is not actually a bet that those events will happen (and that the site and enough of the economy will survive to allow you to collect and spend your winnings), it's a bet that the market will resolve incorrectly.
That'd be easier to game than "will somebody run onto the field in the next $sports game". Just bet yes and bring a hair dryer. Make sure somebody posts evidence to X so you can cash out
If the yes side is heavily favored because it's a "sure thing" then there will eventually be people who bet no and hire guards (or go themselves) to defend the weather sensor from the hairdryer-wielders.
If that happened, has a crime been committed? I don't think so. Well, maybe tampering with the thermometer might be a crime, but, on the gambling angle, I would say it's not.
The betting contract depended on the Oracle's data for resolution. The Oracle's data was altered. The betting contract wasn't altered, however the social contract was.
Just to be clear, my understanding of news here is France is that there is an investigation for someone having possibly rigged the weather sensor but there was nothing release about how this could have been done.
The hair dryer thing is a joke, even if it is still a possibility, but just to say, it could be a cover, it could be a hot air gun, it could be a hack, it could be just luck, ...
Take care because there are ai generated videos of a guy with a hair dryer doing that, but these are fake!
Already discussed: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208
"It sucks that someone potentially tricked a temperature sensor with a hairdryer to scam actual gamblers out of potential winnings" really missed a chance to say it blows.
in fairness, hairdryers have to suck so they can blow
That’s rather dry humour for such a hairy situation
It went over my head, but I think they’re full of hot air anyway.
"actual gamblers"
Real Gamers
Gambling addicts will really gamble on anything, won’t they? It’s a bit strange to see degenerate gambling dressed up as “predictions”.
It’s not gambling, these are legitimate financial instruments designed to allow proper risk management through appropriately market-set pricing on the value of that risk mitigation, and it’s doing this in a way that democratizes risk management in a way previously inaccessible to the public.
j/k totally gambling
This looks less like gambling addiction and more like a scam executed for profit.
And who fueled the profits? Gamblers?
This instance is what you could call a scam, maybe even fraud. But in the absence of manipulation or insider knowledge predicting the weather is pretty close to gambling. As is "does bitcoin go up or down in the next five minutes" or "how many tweets will Elon Musk post in the next couple days" (all real bets on Polymarket)
Yes, gambling. That's literally what gambling is, a scam.
Gambling takes many forms.
If you and I flip a coin for $100, there's no scam.
It’s a scam when the house takes $1 from that $100 each time. These unlicensed internet gambling halls most certainly take their cut, whatever that amount is.
It's only a scam if they don't disclose that. If the house brought the two people together I'd say it's fair as services rendered. I don't get mad when a bar charges more than the base cost of the alcohol.
Your definition of scam is terrible
Sooner or later someone will rig the coin
Potential for fraudulent activity makes something a scam? That list is gonna be long
"Gaming"[0] companies are audited for the expected value each coin toss/slot machine roll etc. has - typically it's a high and unusually precise percentage, like e.g. 95.1681%.
The scam in is advertising, that emphasizes how much you can potentially win, even though obviously on average the house takes those few percent each time.
[0] A term they like to use to describe themselves.
Or a spherical cow.
A lot of gambling is a scam executed form profit. I call it a scam because it's not always fraudulent, it's persuasion and a dash of misleading info. Often one party unduly influences the outcome or has information that the other can't have. Whether it's corruption to predetermine the result of a match, or knowing that the star player will miss it, or a gambling machine that suggests a higher expected payout than the real one, or even a casino's rules that arbitrarily decide whether your win was legitimate or not, in practice the industry is more scam than legitimate business.
We rename everything to make it cooler to sell. Probably been a thing since the times of the sea people.
Even the term "sea people" sounds cooler than "those dudes who live over there by the water"
Preferable to “the beaker folk of the Bronze Age”
I'm a "holy crap how do they keep getting the weather so wrong" addict and it's as irrational as being a gambling addict in that weather forecasts have improved a lot. I've never been tempted to gamble until now, where I realize I can put my money where my (irrational) mouth is.
All that said, gambling addiction is like a disease, same as any other. Holding folks who have it in contempt is about the same as holding alcoholics in contempt. It ignores the fact that it's a real affliction and not a lifestyle choice. Polymarket is taking advantage of that affliction.
You seem to ignore the fact that most people know how bad alcohol, gambling, cigarettes and other addictive things are, yet they still choose them and then suffer consequences.
If you asked someone whether they wanted to get ass cancer and they told you: "yeah, yolo", wouldn't it be a contempt-worthy choice? It would.
Nah I just have compassion for people. For one thing, not everybody knows how bad those things are. If all you see is that "fun uncle" who's always drunk, you learn that drinking isn't so bad. Couple that with being bombarded by positive messages around drinking and the popular belief that anything in moderation is OK, and you end up doing them. The very act of doing them obscures the consequences you are suffering. That's chemical.
The same thing happens with gambling, but it's a dopamine rush instead of an alcohol rush.
I'm not saying people have no agency, I'm just saying there's a lot more going on than just agency.
How is it any different from the stock market?
(Whether you read this as a defense of polymarket or an indictment of shareholder capitalism might depend on your ideology)
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I think what's also telling is Polymarket's non-reaction to this. If there are obvious concerns that the outcome was manipulated, I'd expect them to invalidate the bet - otherwise they're effectively incentivising manipulation.
Polymarket is simply an exchange for these sorts of “contracts” and the results are verified by a separate entity (it’s a DAO, which of course can be manipulated, and was the subject of controversy due to some Venezuela invasion-related “market” resolutions)
Poly market resolution has a long history of controversy. Going back years now the DAO has essentially scammed users with questionable resolutions.
If anything this was great free advertising for their platform
No no no, the outcome revealed new information as the market intends! That info is that people had discounted the rare weather event “a 10% chance of localized hairdryers” on the day in question. The bettor predicted this better than everyone else, making their info public by placing a bet!!! /s
It never occurred to me that Goodhart's law could be applied to betting, but here we are :)
Is there a bet available to determine if the weather forecasted was impacted by a hair dryer?
That's effectively what all the 99% or 1% prediction markets are: a bet that an asteroid will destroy the planet or that the Rapture will occur or that we'll all upload our consciousnesses into computronium or whatever is not actually a bet that those events will happen (and that the site and enough of the economy will survive to allow you to collect and spend your winnings), it's a bet that the market will resolve incorrectly.
That's not a bad idea. It actually sounds like it could be a very useful hedge/insurance play.
That'd be easier to game than "will somebody run onto the field in the next $sports game". Just bet yes and bring a hair dryer. Make sure somebody posts evidence to X so you can cash out
If the yes side is heavily favored because it's a "sure thing" then there will eventually be people who bet no and hire guards (or go themselves) to defend the weather sensor from the hairdryer-wielders.
This could be the origin of a new sport, and then betting on it would become even more common
I can't believe there's no honor among the gamblers!
Finally some hacking news!
They said that Cobra would never acquire the pieces of the Weather Dominator. Now we’re doomed!
If that happened, has a crime been committed? I don't think so. Well, maybe tampering with the thermometer might be a crime, but, on the gambling angle, I would say it's not.
The betting contract depended on the Oracle's data for resolution. The Oracle's data was altered. The betting contract wasn't altered, however the social contract was.
If you cheat a casino, you go to jail.
Maybe it's bad to let people bet on anything, huh
hilarious title, engadget is still quality after all these years
Just to be clear, my understanding of news here is France is that there is an investigation for someone having possibly rigged the weather sensor but there was nothing release about how this could have been done.
The hair dryer thing is a joke, even if it is still a possibility, but just to say, it could be a cover, it could be a hot air gun, it could be a hack, it could be just luck, ...
Take care because there are ai generated videos of a guy with a hair dryer doing that, but these are fake!
Dupe from a little bit ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208
Is that better or worse than invading Venezuela to rig a Polymarket bet ?
lulz futures paying off as usual
climate change via hair drier ;D
2 weeks old news OP
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47869664
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208
A fool and his money etc etc.
You love to see it.
is this what the cryptobros are doing now?
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