Quick update from the first hour. 16 people have taken the quiz so far. Average Brier score is 0.232, with the best coming in at 0.031 (nearly perfect). The worst was 0.475. Interestingly, nobody got flagged as overconfident, which either means HN readers are better calibrated than most or my thresholds need work... Curious what others are seeing!
Quick update from the first hour. 16 people have taken the quiz so far. Average Brier score is 0.232, with the best coming in at 0.031 (nearly perfect). The worst was 0.475. Interestingly, nobody got flagged as overconfident, which either means HN readers are better calibrated than most or my thresholds need work... Curious what others are seeing!